Unpredictable. Unfocused. Just like life.

Economists can't predict recessions.

From CNN:

Economic forecasters, in fact, are very bad at predicting recessions. At any given moment, they can't tell you with much certainty whether a recession will begin next quarter, let alone next year. Right now, for instance, there's abundant evidence that the economy is slowing down but no guarantee that it will achieve the so-called soft landing (a slowdown, with lower inflation, followed by renewed expansion) instead of slipping into recession. Hardly any forecasters warn of an imminent downturn, but the truth is that when the next one comes, they probably won't see it until it has already begun. To work the weather analogy one last time, it's as though weatherpersons could tell you whether it was going to rain only hours after the rain had started.

From the Chicago Tribune:

Because the U.S. economy is astonishingly complex and subject to many variables, economists can't predict recessions. They can't even say for certain one is under way until months after it has begun.

From the Huffington Post:

Economists can't pinpoint recessions without the benefit of hindsight, and most usually start while economists are still predicting that we won't have one.

So why do they insist on claiming that they can?

From the Financial Times:

Wall Street stocks retreated again on Wednesday after Goldman Sachs forecast that the US economy would fall into a recession this year, compounding investor concerns about the near-term outlook for equities.

From the CBC:

Canada's economic growth will slow down this year, but will avoid a recession, top economists at Canada's biggest banks agreed Wednesday.

I understand the point about indicators, but it's all just a guess at best.

Though I wish someone could explain to me why even though 75% of Canada's exports go to the US, Canada is completely unaffected by US recessions.